Price $37.00

This purchase is for the latest (current month) analysis of the Cowan LRA Model Semiconductor Forecast.

The Cowan LRA (Linear Regression Analysis) Model, which forecasts global semiconductor sales, is a mathematically based model that features statistical analysis of the past 24 years of historical, monthly global semiconductor sales numbers that are collected and published by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization. It is a dynamic, mathematically pure view of near-term worldwide semiconductor sales looking forward over the next five quarters.

The model is devoid of economic assumptions or emotional biases. It exploits linear regression analysis operating on the "appropriately transformed" actual monthly semiconductor sales numbers, thereby "rendering" the global semiconductor sales data highly linear and, therefore, very amenable to linear regression statistical analysis techniques. The numerical transformation of the past 24 years of monthly actual sales numbers -- from 1984 through 2007 -- that is invoked is not a complicated mathematical expression but very straight forward and "makes sense physically," yielding extremely high linear regression correlation coefficients of 0.97 and greater. In exercising the forecasting model each month, a total of five distinct sets of linear regression parameters (of the format y=mx+b) are employed to calculate the resulting global semiconductor sales forecast estimates for each of the next five quarters associated with the model's forecast horizon.

Download a free sample of the Cowan LRA Model Forecast.

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